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Showing posts with label US elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US elections. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

JLT, "An election, not the Second Coming," November 3, 2008.

Most Monday's World Report works hard to bring you a range of viewpoints about international events. I usually make it clear where I'm coming from, but I've never used these 30 minutes as a soapbox solely for my own personal political idiosyncrasies. This morning is different.

Last March, in the middle of the US primaries, Stephen Fowler invited me onto Coop Radio's "By the People" to give a resident American's viewpoint on Andre Carrell's essay entitled, "Obamamania."

Stephen began by asking me who I would vote for in the American elections. Back in March, I gave him everything but a direct answer. It was, after all, early in the primaries. No one knew at the time that there would be a Canadian federal election before the American one.

Today, just a day before the American elections--and two weeks after the Canadian ones--I'll try to answer that question more completely if not exactly more directly. Not that I think anyone should give a hoot how I vote. Not that it's even anyone's business but my own.

However, an election is a summary opportunity. It asks us to to consider everything that we think important in public life, everything that affects us in however small or intimate a way, and to add it all up. A vote is a compromise. There is no way to avoid this. Not voting is just another compromise.

On the last World Repot I read the story of how the Canadian government tried to force Six Nations people to select their leaders in a process that the settler government saw as democracy. To this day, fewer than 10 percent of the people actually vote. More than 40 percent of Canada's registered voters refused to vote in the last election. In Iran, the moderate opposition made a public point of boycotting the last elections.

The results have not prevented Canada's government and media from talking about the Six Nations so-called "elected government" as the legitimate one. At the same time, the old white boys have not succeeded in convincing any but a small minority of the Six Nations people that their real leaders are any other than the ones they select by their traditional methods.

The results of voter alienation in the Canadian federal elections and the voter boycott in Iran are more ambiguous. To repeat, voting--or not--is a compromise, and there is no way to avoid it. No way to avoid the compromise. Politics has been called the art of compromise. It is a way of dealing with ethical ambiguity. Many of us loathe compromise so deeply that we contract it out to politicians. In much the same way that Canada contracts out its torture business to the US and Syria, we contract out the necessary compromises of public life to polticians whom we then proceed to treat with contempt.

So we vote--or refuse to vote--for the candidate or party that compromises us the least and then complain about the results.

An election is a very intense snapshot in time of what I call a grand synthesis. Of course, it's just my viewpoint. You will vote or not as you see fit for whomever you see fit, or for whomever you see as the least unfit. For my part, I have exercised some discipline NOT to talk about the American election obsessively on a regular basis as if nothing else were important. However, now, it's time. And it may be of some interest to you to hear how someone else thinks about it all. But first, let's listen to that exchange from back in March.

[clip]

I think those five sobering truisms are still good reminders.

[...]

CNN has been looking forward to this election since January 2007 when it began running a regular daily feature called Election 2008. What does this mean?

Elections are a secular version of salvation. Obama is seen as a saviour, the Messiah.

Americans and the rest of the world have more than just the Bush legacy to worry about.

Back in January 2000, Bill Clinton's final term in office was coming mercifully to an end.

Clinton had sent American troops off to war more times and in more places than any other president in the history of the United States--or so it was said. Even so, he stood by and watched while the genocide unfolded in Rwanda. His Secretary of State, Madelein Albright declared that the deaths of half a million Iraqi children was an acceptable price to pay for containing Saddam Hussein with crippling sanctions.

By January, his contemptible presidency was just about over. Clinton wanted to be seen favoring Leonard Peltier's release from the Fort Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary, but he didn't have the guts to actually sign the paper.

Back in March I believed that Hillary Clinton would win--game set and match. I was wrong about that. That should put to rest any notion that I think I am a prophet or even always right. Making no mistakes never was one of my strong points.

Not that I would have voted for her to represent me; but I would have bet on her to win. The truth is I was raised in a family of Democrats and have always wanted to vote Democrat. But after Democrats were elected in the mid-term 2006 election, elected I believe to end the war in Iraq and impeach the President and his criminal cronies, Nancy Pelosi made it clear in her first official statement that none of this would be happening.

I have long believed that the United States badly needs more than two parties. I think democracy works better in Canada where we have had four and sometimes five parties with representatives in Parliament. We have a debate about strategic voting and about how voting for a candidate who is not in a front-running party is the same as throwing your vote away or even voting for the enemy. But the events of November 2006 convinced me that just about the ONLY way for me to waste my vote would be to vote for a Democrat. Hillary, Obama, Nelson Mandela I don't care who. The country needs more political parties.

That doesn't mean I'm taking the line that you can't tell the difference between McCain Obama. That's words someone else wants to put in your mouth. I can tell the difference.

McCain is a folksy, grassroots military man. Obama is a golden-tongued community organizer. I listen to McCain, and I think I know what we will get from him. He's a pragmatic man in a compromising profession, so not everything is predictable. But the perennial neocons are still influential in his party, and he has to deal with them.

I enjoy listening to Obama. He says things I like to hear. He understands my values and I understand his. But I don't think I know what we will actually get from him. He says one thing, and the next I read somewhere he has said the opposite. Zbigniew Brzezinsky is his foreign policy advisor. Obama says he doesn't know much about international law. Colin Powell is in his camp, and now there is talk that Gates will stay on as the Secretary of Defense. How many Republicans are there on this bandwagon?

Many take the sudden appearance of women and blacks on the political scene in the US as a sign of hope. But why now when things are so bad? Might it be a sign of desperation, and not a sign of maturing democracy at all? The old boy democracies of the US and UK are more like corporate aristocracies with elected kings. Unless someone can be found who desires power almost more than life itself--someone like Stephen Harper--then, given the circumstances, a candidate must be found to hold the bag while the old boys steal the parachutes.

The US never was a beacon on the hill. It was, for some, the best compromise. For others, Canada may have been a better deal. For others, Mauritius or Kenya, Rhodesia or Vanuatu had cheaper land or better beaches or a more docile indigenous population. No point in getting a big head about it.

The real political issue now facing the US is not salvation. The pre-eminent practical question is whether the crash and the devolution into multipolarity can be turned into a soft landing--and most important, for whom is that soft landing being prepared. But the real practical question is whether or not the planet can be saved. For you and me, the Wall Street bankruptcy costs are very small, but there will be many of them. For the warlords, bankers and snake oil salesmen, "greed is good." Lots of yachts and private jets stand to be lost, but fewer of them. It is an opportune time for people to organize, but that's a theme for another day.

If I could vote for anyone at all, I would vote for Leonard Peltier, but that's not an option.

The skills required of the next American president I expect will be similar to those required to manage PTSD or a really bad hangover, managing withdrawal from a 250 year delusion of grandeur without blaming someone else for it as an excuse to go on acting out the considerable predisposition to violence.

Someone will have to come up with a plan about what to do with all those soldiers. That doesn't mean just the reservists; that means introducing the idea of career change at Blackwater and other privatized militaries.

I have come to believe that the US desperately needs a Congress with three or four or more parties represented in it. That is where democracy resides, and that is how diversity should be reflected. Failing that, a vote for a party that refused to get out of Iraq and could not impeach the criminal president is a vote truly wasted no matter who the party's leader is, and especially regardless of the candidate's gender or skin color or ethnic or military background. There are not likely to be any real winners in this election although you won't be able to tell from the television coverage.

I might vote for Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich if they were not associated with the traditional war parties.

I don't delude myself thateither McKinney or Peltier will restore American democracy or redeem America's image with the rest of the world or unite the country or solve the devastating predisposition to look for solutions in voiolent behavior.

The problems are simply too big. The wars will end when we get thrown out. I say "we"
because Canada has clearly been in both wars no matter how Chretien and the Liberals choose to promote his government and their party.

The economy is an appropriate image. Rule of law or ethics or even simple morality would dictate that predatory lenders and other serious financial criminals should be taken out of action and put behind bars. But the reason why it won't happen is the same as the reason why Bush will never be impeached or held accountable for his disastrous presidency. There are simply too many crooks to convict--on Wall Street, in Washington, in capitals around the world.

There is not just an elephant in the room. There's an elephant, a dragon, and some demons in a leaky boat: climate change, the loss of biodiversity, the collapse of commercial fisheries, failure of the Doha Round and the WTO, Alan Greenspan's confession that the neoliberal paradigm was wrong, a food crisis, water, a nuclear renaissance, new rewards for nuclear proliferation and what appears to be declining effectiveness of non-violence--in Israel-Palestine, in Georgia, in Ukraine.

No saviour will be elected. The real position to be won in this contest looks a lot like the band leader on the Titanic. The captain, who sailed our unsinkable ship into the predictable iceberg, has elbowed his way onto one of the lavish new lifeboats, but someone must be found to conduct. Call it "the orchestra" if that will make the players feel better as the whole platform goes out of level and the rising water ruins their fancy shoes. Soon enough their precious instruments will be lost too.

For the time being, the band will play familiar tunes while the ship continues to sink into the icy deep. Tennis players on the upper deck should be advised that there will be no level playing field--repeat NO LEVEL PLAYING FIELD--until the ship settles on the bottom--maybe not even then.

Women and blacks were interviewed for the captain and bandleader jobs because most of
the white old boys knew that they would be busy scrambling for the lifeboats. No matter what, there will be no refunds. Suckers will be expected to pay the inflated price. So enjoy the election, and caveat emptor.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Greg Palast, "Rolling Stone: The election's already stolen," October 19, 2008.

...from Murray Dobbin

Investigation by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Greg Palast released today

Don't worry about Mickey Mouse or ACORN stealing the election.

According to an investigative report out today in Rolling Stone magazine, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Greg Palast, after a year-long investigation, reveal a systematic program of "GOP vote tampering" on a massive scale.

- Republican Secretaries of State of swing-state Colorado have quietly purged one in six names from their voter rolls.

Over several months, the GOP politicos in Colorado stonewalled every attempt by Rolling Stone to get an answer to the massive purge - ten times the average state's rate of removal.

- While Obama dreams of riding to the White House on a wave of new voters, more then 2.7 million have had their registrations REJECTED under new procedures signed into law by George Bush.

Kennedy, a voting rights lawyer, charges this is a resurgence of 'Jim Crow' tactics to wrongly block Black and Hispanic voters.

- A fired US prosecutor levels new charges - accusing leaders of his own party, Republicans, with criminal acts in an attempt to block legal voters as "fraudulent."

- Digging through government records, the Kennedy-Palast team discovered that, in 2004, a GOP scheme called "caging" ultimately took away the rights of 1.1 million voters. The Rolling Stone duo predict that, this November 4, it will be far worse.

There's more:

- Since the last presidential race, "States used dubious 'list management' rules to scrub at least 10 million voters from their rolls."

Among those was Paul Maez of Las Vegas, New Mexico - a victim of an unreported but devastating purge of voters in that state that left as many as one in nine Democrats without a vote. For Maez, the state's purging his registration was particularly shocking - he's the county elections supervisor.

The Kennedy-Palast revelations go far beyond the sum of questionably purged voters recently reported by the New York Times.

"Republican operatives - the party's elite commandos of bare-knuckle politics," report Kennedy and Palast, under the cover of fighting fraudulent voting, are "systematically disenfranchis[ing] Democrats."

The investigators level a deadly serious charge:

"If Democrats are to win the 2008 election, they must not simply beat McCain at the polls - they must beat him by a margin that exceeds the level of GOP vote tampering."


Block the Vote by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. & Greg Palast in the current issue (#1064) of Rolling Stone. [Media enquiries - Dave Falkenstein, Sunshine Sachs & Assoc, via interviews@gregpalast.com.] Note - Kennedy and Palast are releasing, simultaneously with the Rolling Stone investigative report what they call, the vote-theft 'antidote': a 24-page full-color comic book, Steal Back Your Vote, which can be downloaded or obtained in print from their non-partisan website, StealBackYourVote.org
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Friday, April 04, 2008

"NAFTA, US Drought Endanger Canada's Water -Study," Planet Ark, April 4, 2008.

OTTAWA - Increasing droughts in the United States and American unhappiness over NAFTA mean Canada could one day be forced to allow bulk shipments of water to its giant neighbour, a left-leaning think tank said on Thursday.

The Polaris Institute demanded that Canada pass a law banning the bulk export of water to the United States. Ottawa says such exports are already blocked under the North American Free Trade Agreement, which the two leading US Democratic presidential candidates want to rewrite.

"The US primaries ... have quite clearly indicated there is a real possibility NAFTA will be reopened and renegotiated and if that's the case, we certainly need to be much better prepared," said Tony Clarke of Polaris.

"And one of the issues that needs to be on the table is taking water off the table," he told reporters.

[...]

Trade Minister David Emerson said there was no truth to the suggestion that NAFTA could one day be used to force Canada to export water to the United States.

"Water under NAFTA is acknowledged not to be a traded good and indeed there is a clear prohibition in Canada on any removal of bulk water from trans-border water basins," he told reporters.

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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Peter Buxbaum, US: Losing Europe, ISN Security Watch, March 27, 2007.

The next US president may be able to improve America's tarnished image in Europe, but many allies have already headed for the hills and the task is indeed a formidable one, Peter Buxbaum writes for ISN Security Watch.

Will the next president of the United States improve American's image in Europe? It depends, of course, on who wins the November election.

But only in part. America's Iraq fiasco and the Bush administration's unilateralism has so tarnished the US persona that even the country's closest allies, with only a few notable exceptions, have headed for the hills.

The case in point is Afghanistan, the one conflict that the consensus opinion views as a necessary and righteous war against the perpetrators of 9/11 and their protectors. The US misadventure in Mesopotamia has so compromised US capabilities to confront the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan that it has soured America's NATO allies to the US conception of the global war on terror. The Germans have said recently that they will not deploy troops to the more dangerous areas of southern Afghanistan, while French and Turkish troops appear to have taken more of a peacekeeping than an offensive posture.

So the task of polishing the US image to a shine will be a formidable one. The question is which of the approaches of the three remaining candidates is most likely to achieve this aim.

No about face

Europeans seeking an about-face on US policy will likely to be disappointed no matter who is elected. John McCain, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are all interventionists who would continue chasing terrorists around the world while also deploying US power for peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.

All three have advocated beefed-up NATO operations in Afghanistan, while also speaking approvingly of mounting a multilateral mission in Darfur. All three have also deployed Cold War-like rhetoric for one reason or another.

McCain and Obama are the easiest cases to discern, while Clinton's is more ambiguous. McCain, consistently more hawkish on the war in Iraq than even President George W Bush himself, is most interested in preserving and projecting American power. Obama - a citizen of the world who has succeeded in transcending ethnicity at the domestic political level - is more likely to pursue true partnerships with America's European allies, which would assert western interests in the war on terror as well as perform peacekeeping and humanitarian missions globally. Clinton would seek to mobilize European partners by harkening to the US-European success in defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War past.

The candidates' policies toward the US presence in Iraq will have to be one of the key prisms through which Europeans will view the United States.

McCain has vowed that he will not pull US forces out of Iraq, and might actually station them there for another 100 years. This would continue to restrict the US military in operations it will be able to conduct elsewhere and would force reliance on others. A President McCain would expect NATO and other forces to continue to provide the lion's share of human resources in the conduct of operations in Afghanistan, and perhaps at other flashpoints in the so-called war on terror. McCain has already advocated that NATO increase its troop presence in Afghanistan.

McCain can also be expected to continue the Bush policy of avoiding the multilateral processes of the United Nations. He has advocated establishing a League of Democracies, which "would form the core of an international order of peace based on freedom." The League "could act where the UN fails to act, to relieve human suffering in places like Darfur," McCain said in a campaign speech. "It could bring concerted pressure to bear on tyrants in Burma or Zimbabwe, with or without Moscow's and Beijing's approval. It could unite to impose sanctions on Iran and thwart its nuclear ambitions."

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have both advocated withdrawing US troops from Iraq, a policy that would be supported by most of America's European friends. But Obama would seek to recruit allies with lofty rhetoric appealing to high ideals while Clinton would galvanize them with neo-Cold War verbiage.

Obama invokes the memories of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F Kennedy, when he presents his world view. "They ensured that America, by deed and example, led and lifted the world," he said on the campaign trail.

"As Roosevelt built the most formidable military the world had ever seen, his Four Freedoms gave purpose to our struggle against fascism," he continued. "Truman championed a bold new architecture to respond to the Soviet threat, one that paired military strength with the Marshall Plan and helped secure the peace and well-being of nations around the world. Kennedy modernized our military doctrine, strengthened our conventional forces and created the Peace Corps and the Alliance for Progress. They used our strengths to show people everywhere America at its best."

Clinton is not without her appeal to good works, but prefers to couch her world view in the nitty gritty of policy details. She appeals for a new definition of national security which would incorporate trade and energy policies. On the trade front, she would confront what she sees as China's excesses.

Clinton would "take aggressive steps to stop China from manipulating its currency," she said in a campaign speech, and would "start breaking our reliance on China for not only what they provide to us in terms of the way they buy our dollars and buy our debt but also to be held to higher standards for what they import into our market.

"When we talk about foreign policy, we have to talk about fiscal policy, energy policy and so much else besides just the narrow view that has been primarily driven by the Bush Administration over the last seven years," Clinton added.

John McCain appears to be anxious to confront Russia, while Obama would rely on NATO to push back against a Russian move in the Balkans. Russia, in McCain's view "looks more and more like some 19th-century autocracy, marked by diminishing political freedoms, shadowy intrigue and mysterious assassinations," he said, in a speech. "Beyond its borders Moscow has tried to expand its influence over its neighbors in Eastern, Central and even Western Europe.

"We need a new western approach to this revanchist Russia," McCain continued. "We should start by ensuring that the G-8, the group of eight highly industrialized states, becomes again a club of leading market democracies. It should include Brazil and India but exclude Russia."

Obama would confront Serbia and Russia in the event that those nations attempt to compromise the integrity of the newly independent Kosovo. "We have a strong international structure anchored in NATO to deal with this issue," he said in a recent campaign debate with Hillary Clinton. "We have recognized the country of Kosovo as an independent, sovereign nation, and I think that that carries with it, then, certain obligations to ensure that they are not invaded."

Clinton, by contrast, blames Bush for the deterioration in US-Russian relations. "After September 11, President Bush focused US-Russian relations around just one issue, fighting terrorism," she said, in a speech. "Mr Putin saw that this meant he had a free pass to act as he liked at home and in Russia's neighborhood. In the meantime, America's relations with our European allies, who are absolutely essential to an effective Russia policy, frayed."

While McCain and Obama's willingness to confront Russia may sound like a retreat to Cold War geopolitics, Hillary Clinton seeks to reinvigorate NATO by invoking Cold War ideology, but to a different aim. "The war on terror, like the Cold War, is fundamentally a battle over ideas and values," she said, in a campaign speech. "Let's be sure that the American military does not fight terrorism alone. It is time that we demanded that our alliances, including NATO, are united with us in this fight."

Winning back Europe

Whatever their campaign rhetoric, the next president will be challenged to change America's perception among its European partners.

McCain's promise to retain Bush's postures and expand his policies means that a McCain presidency will almost certainly not alter America's perceptions in the world. His strident rhetoric against Russia will also no doubt fall flat on a continent reluctant to return to the Cold War.

But the Democrats are handicapped because they feel obliged to talk tough on foreign affairs and to strike a militaristic pose. Besides having to overcome eight years of Bush unilateralism, the next US president will also have to face decreasing NATO military budgets and overloaded and exhausted NATO military organizations. Europeans will be reluctant to follow the US lead into an escalated Afghanistan operation after a seven-year war that has fallen short of its aims, no matter the rhetoric or the incentives.

The election of John McCain can only be seen as a third term for George W Bush, at least as foreign policy is concerned.

Obama and Clinton have a better chance of recruiting European support on a broader range of issues.

Obama's personality and rhetoric are more likely to appeal to Europeans while Clinton's promised reform of the US-Russia policy and broadened definition of national security means that Europeans will be able to engage with America on a range of issues that go beyond military operations and the war on terror.

Peter Buxbaum, a Washington-based independent journalist, has been writing about defense, security, business and technology for 15 years. His work has appeared in publications such as Fortune, Forbes, Chief Executive, Information Week, Defense Technology International, Homeland Security and Computerworld. His website is www.buxbaum1.com.
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Friday, March 14, 2008

Obamamania: A short list of sobering truisims

I say truisims because I think these propositions are obvious, unassailable, more or less on a par with "the sky is blue." Feel free to disagree.

1. There will be change. Change is not a policy or a plan or even an issue. It is an inevitable fact of life. Americans will get political change whether they want it or not; it's guaranteed by the 22nd Amendment.

2. Any one of the three candidates will be an improvement. The Bush legacy is a disaster domestically (health care, environment, Katrina) and internationally (Israel-Palestine, Colombia, Iraq, Afghanistan. Even the "successes" in Ukraine, Georgia, Libya and North Korea don't look so good.) The economy is in recession, the dollar is bust, globalization is stalled at the WTO, the IMF is becoming less relevant and I haven't said anything about climate change or development in the Arctic. All three candidates put together won't be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

3. That said, it could have been worse. Pseudo pundits gazing at the bottom of their glasses will assure the opposite, but that's just a prelude to falling off the barstool. There is no war in Iran, no renewed Cold War with Russia or China (despite repeated provocations); no armoured personnel carriers in Detroit or LA or St Louis; no invasion of Canada; no cancelled elections; no assassinations inside the US. It could have been a lot worse. Stay tuned.

4. The neocons will be back. The geni is out of the bottle. As Paul Simon says, "Everybody feels the wind blow." The coalition of neoliberal capitalism, belligerent anti-social Christianity, and paramilitarism in various national guises will be a feature of American political life for the foreseeable future. Most of the current neocons are recycled from Watergate, Iran-contra and the like. And they have been successful at propagating their philosophy. Nothing about democracy or human rights can prevent it. You can call them stupid, but they have made the first real contribution to the theory and practise of torture since the Middle Ages. That has to count for something. Certainly , nothing about electing Obama (or Clinton or McCain) will prevent their return.

5. It's an election, not the Second Coming. Really, it's just nominations for the Democrat's candidate. Anyone who promises to put the toothpaste back in the tube is a charlatan. People seriously concerned about democracy will leave the Great Man Theory of History to those who believe in it and work instead for a like-minded, possibly green, candidate for the House of Representatives. If you want to stop the concentration of power in the executive, give up your seat on the bandwagon to someone who has already given up.

Finally, a question. Does anyone have a theory about why what remains of the Canadian left has such a morbid interest in this race for the Democratic nomination? I understand the trade imbalance, the military dependency. I understand the interest when campaign talk turns to re-negotiating NAFTA. But I don't understand Canadians' need to treat an American candidate to become a candidate as if he were a rock star. Will we have screaming and fainting next?



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Friday, November 10, 2006

Richard B. Schmitt and Richard Simon, "Democrats Are Set to Subpoena," Los Angeles Times, November 10, 2006.

WASHINGTON - Rep. Ike Skelton knows what he will do in one of his first acts as chairman of the Armed Services Committee in the Democratic-led House: resurrect the subcommittee on oversight and investigations.

NEW MAJORITY: Democratic Sens. Charles E. Schumer of New York, Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Richard J. Durbin of Illinois head to a celebration.
(Dennis Cook / AP)

The panel was disbanded by the Republicans after they won control of Congress in 1994. Now, Skelton (D-Mo.) intends to use it as a forum to probe Pentagon spending and the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war.

It has been 12 years since Democrats were in control of both the House and Senate. But they are looking to make up for lost time, and in some cases, make the Bush administration and its business allies sweat.

With control of every committee in Congress starting in January, the new majority will inherit broad powers to subpoena and investigate. And that is expected to translate into wide-ranging and contentious hearings.

The agenda is likely to be dominated by the Iraq war, but could include probes into the Bush administration's warrantless surveillance, environmental policies and new prescription-drug program for seniors. Industries, such as oil companies, could also come under closer scrutiny.

"The American people sent a clear message that they do not want a rubber-stamp Congress that simply signs off the president's agenda," said Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.), who is in line to become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. "Instead, they have voted for a new direction for America and a real check and balance against government overreaching."

Conyers and other Democrats say that sort of scrutiny has been noticeably absent over the last six years. Democrats accuse Republicans of being complicit as Bush has led the nation into an unwinnable war and adopted economic polices that favor the affluent and big business.

Under Republican control, Congress did subpoena baseball players to discuss steroid use and summon oil industry executives to justify record profits at a time of high gasoline prices.

"What we have to be wary of, and the American public will be wary of, is a subpoena bazaar here on Capitol Hill, and government by investigation by Democrats," said Kevin Madden, a spokesman for House Majority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio).

But even some scholars say recent GOP oversight has been lax. "This could be remembered as a historically unique period in which an administration got immunity from Congress to engage in errors with impunity," said Charles Tiefer, a University of Baltimore law professor and a former House counsel.

Democrats face a delicate balancing test, mindful of a public backlash if they focus more on investigating than legislating.

Their leader, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), has already ruled some investigations out of bounds. Conyers has wanted Congress to determine whether there are grounds to impeach Bush. But Pelosi has said that will not happen.

While there is pent-up demand among Democrats in Congress and their constituencies to oversee the Bush administration, their new caucus will also include a number of moderates and conservatives, which may force the leadership to tone down its act.

"The Democrats are going to be cross-pressured. They could hold impeachment hearings. They could make people in the Bush administration look absolutely terrible. It wouldn't be hard," said Joel Aberbach, a UCLA political science professor. "But there may be a little restraint because of their political needs in terms of consolidating themselves and looking to the 2008 election."

Democrats are expected to bore into the Iraq war, including review of no-bid contracts for reconstruction, intelligence failures and decisions to ignore the advice of military commanders about troop levels.

"Rather than focus on the failings of the war, though, these events will be staged in order to highlight the administration's incompetence and inflexibility," said William Howell, an associate professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on oversight and investigations, said, if he becomes chairman, he would look into "security at our nuclear labs, oversight of the Food and Drug Administration, and energy policy."

Now that they have the power of the subpoena, Democrats expect to be able to get the administration's attention. A number of senior Democrats have complained that the administration has ignored their inquiries.

Rep. James L. Oberstar, the top Democrat on the House Transportation Committee, this year was in the middle of grilling Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff on the administration's response to Hurricane Katrina when the Republican chairing the hearing cut him off. He had used his allotted five minutes.

Now that Oberstar, of Minnesota, is in line to become the committee chairman, among his first acts is expected to be scrapping the five-minute rule established by the GOP majority.

"I would guess that we're going to have some fairly long hearings," said Jim Berard, an Oberstar spokesman.

The new Congress will also be marked by the ascendancy of some old watchdogs.

Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles) is set to head the House Government Reform Committee. Waxman used another committee to push for landmark laws reducing pesticides in food and regulating nursing homes in the 1980s and 1990s. He also famously put tobacco company executives on the spot at a high-profile hearing in which they testified under oath that they did not believe that nicotine was addictive.

Since Bush took office, Waxman has written letters to the White House seeking information on a wide range of subjects — often getting no response. Now, with the power to issue subpoenas, he is likely to get answers.

Waxman wants to investigate waste, fraud, profiteering and "whether government is doing the job it's supposed to do."

"When Clinton was president, there was not an accusation too small for them not to launch investigations and issue subpoenas," Waxman said of congressional Republicans. "When Bush became president, there wasn't a scandal big enough for them to ignore. I think they've given us a good model on how not to behave."

The most senior member of the House, Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.), is also scheduled to play a crucial role in the new Congress, again becoming chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

He already has a number of subjects he wants to look into, including the Medicare prescription drug benefit and an overhaul of energy policy, two of the GOP's proudest achievements.

"We're not after anybody," Dingell said, but he said if anyone from the administration has "useful things to tell us," they will be "invited to come forward."

Copyright 2006 Los Angeles Times

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