If we look around the world at the prospects for Fourth Generation entities, what does the new year reveal? Regrettably, they seem to face a rosy future.
The Israeli assault on Hamas in Gaza will succeed physically, prove a mixed bag mentally and fail on the moral level of war. Hamas is militarily a pushover compared to Hezbollah, which makes the David vs. Goliath nature of the conflict all the more evident. The stronger the contrast, the worse the outcome for Goliath. The fact that the timing if not the event is driven by Israeli electoral politics makes the moral picture even grimmer. Add in that absent a deal Hamas’s rocket fire will continue and we see the makings of a debacle for Israel.
| As Globalism collapses economically and the global elites are revealed as emperors without clothes, the motto of every state will become “sauve qui peut.” |
Some may see the assault as Israel selecting the “Hama option” van Creveld discusses, but I do not agree. Choosing the Hama option would mean subjecting Gaza to a World War I - style bombardment, with tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and the rest fleeing into Egypt for their lives. Gaza would largely be flattened, as was the Syrian city of Hama. As usual, the reality here is that the state has fallen between the two stools of the Hama option and de-escalation, which guarantees failure.
| Strategically, the most important result will be further weakening of the legitimacy of the Egyptian government |
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